The purpose of this assignment is to get some experience describing and analyzing a typical measles outbreak. Here is the scenario: You are an epidemiologist with the state immunization program. Your Division Director wants information on a recent measles outbreak. In particular, this outbreak has been in the news and your Director wants an analysis so he can respond to questions (eg how come a third of the cases are in vaccinated persons does the vaccine work?). The template attached is a very typical example of how you might respond to this request. Fill in the rest of the template including:
a graph representing the epidemiological curve of the outbreak,
a narrative description of the salient features of the outbreak and the epi curve,
an analysis of vaccine efficacy (including a calculation of vaccine efficacy for this outbreak), and
a list of conclusions and recommendations for your Director based on your description and analyses.
The results of the case and contact investigations are below:
A pediatrician had evaluated a 10-year-old child in the emergency department on May 10th, 2016 who was suspected to have Kawasaki disease. The child had arrived from India on May 8th and had developed a rash on May 9th. A review of medical records led the investigators to reconsider the rash illness in the 10-year-old child as a possible measles case following the laboratory confirmation of measles by IgM testing.
A total of 108 contacts were identified as exposed to the index case or to the siblings. Of the 108, 100 were vaccinated and 7 were unvaccinated. A total of twelve measles cases were diagnosed in this outbreak. All cases are summarized in the table below.
|Case Description||Age||Onset date||Vaccination h/o||Lab Confirmed y/n|
|sibling 1||7||23-May||no vaccine||y|
|sibling 2||9||26-May||no vaccine||n|
|father||34||26-May||1 MMR (no record)||y|
|contact – index||12 mo||27-May||no vaccine||y|
|contact – siblings||47||03-Jun||1 MMR (no record)||y|
|contact – siblings||8||04-Jun||no vaccine||y|
|contact – siblings||7||05-Jun||no vaccine||y|
|contact – siblings||9||05-Jun||no vaccine||y|
|contact – siblings||10||06-Jun||2 MMRs||y|
|Analysis and narrative – accuracy of graph, accuracy of calculations, accuracy of interpretation|
|Conclusions and Recommendations (supported by the narrative and reflected key priorities in the outbreak)|
|Writing – grammar, spelling, professionalism|
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